Broker Check

-    The Notable Events List    -

September 2021

“Your Guide to Relevant Recent Events”

By: Joseph R. Tranchini, CFA


Monetary

  • Within the Federal Reserve’s most recent FOMC minutes release it was noted that most participants felt it would be appropriate for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchase program in the coming months1
    • However, some participants did suggest that beginning a taper in early 2022 might be beneficial and allow time for the economy to make further progress towards the Fed’s maximum employment and price stability goals1
      • (Federal Reserve) “Various participants commented that economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a reduction in coming months. Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year because they saw prevailing conditions in the labor market as not being close to meeting the Committee’s “substantial further progress” standard or because of uncertainty about the degree of progress toward the price-stability goal.”1
    • Regarding the Federal Reserve’s projections on Inflation, staff continues to view the recent uptick in pricing pressures from supply chain disruptions to be transitory and likely abate over the next year1
      • (Federal Reserve) “Over the following year, the boost to consumer prices caused by supply issues was expected to partly reverse, and import prices were expected to decelerate sharply; as a result, PCE price inflation was expected to step down to a little below 2 percent in 2022 before additional increases in resource utilization raised it to 2 percent in 2023.”1
    • Participants also noted that job growth in the economy has been robust in recent months, although it continues to be constrained by a variety of labor supply factors which notably include expanded unemployment benefits. The consensus expectation is for these factors to wane in the coming months1
      • (Federal Reserve) “Participants generally noted that supply-side factors related to the pandemic— such as caregiving needs, ongoing fears of the virus, increased retirements, and expanded unemployment insurance payments—continued to weigh on labor force participation and employment growth. A majority of participants anticipated that most of these factors would ease in the coming months1

Fiscal

  • Democrat lawmakers in the House vote to approve a new $3.5T Budget Resolution as part of President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. Additionally, House Democrats break an intra-party stalemate and agree to vote on a separate, already Senate-passed $1T infrastructure bill by September 274
    • Although the passage of the $3.5T Budget Resolution will not require any votes from Republican lawmakers, Democratic lawmakers must still write up and agree upon a final draft of the Budget Resolution that is acceptable to both Centrist & Progressive Democrats, a task that may prove difficult as different factions within the party debate size, scope, and potential funding sources4
    • Some degree of uncertainty remains over the timeline for the passage of the separate, bipartisan infrastructure bill which has already been passed in the Senate. Progressive Democratic lawmakers are insisting on tying the two pieces of legislation together, while Centrist Democrats would prefer to pass the bipartisan bill now and then consider the Budget Resolution separately4
    • Republican lawmakers have already backed the bipartisan infrastructure bill, however, remain generally opposed to the additional spending and tax hikes being called for in the $3.5T Budget Resolution4

Geopolitics

  • Afghanistan effectively falls under the control of the Taliban as Taliban-led forces entered the country’s capital city of Kabul on August 15. The move comes in response to the United States’ quoted timeline for substantially ceasing military support by exiting the country by August 313
    • Previously, the Taliban had controlled Afghanistan up until a group of U.S. led forces drove the group out in 20013
    • Currently, United States military forces are in control of Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport and are attempting to manage the flow of evacuations from the country3
    • President Biden has stated that there is a possibility for extending the previously quoted exit date of August 313

Miscellaneous

  • The FDA grants full authorization to Pfizer & BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for the use of individuals 16 years and older2
    • Currently, the vaccine is still available to individuals who are younger than 16 years old under the previous Emergency Use Authorization2
    • The previous Emergency Use Authorization also applies to a third dose of the vaccine, known as a booster, for individuals who are immunocompromised2
    • Moving forward the vaccine will now be marketed and distributed under the name Comirnaty2

[See Below for Disclosures & Annotations]



Disclosure

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

The companies presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be viewed as an investment recommendation.

Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change, which can materially impact investment results. LPL Financial does not provide tax advice. Clients should consult with their personal tax advisors regarding the tax consequences of investing.

 

Annotations

  1. Federal Reserve. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee July 27–28, 2021”. August 18, 2021
  2. FDA. “Comirnaty and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine”. August 23, 2021
  3. The Wall Street Journal. “What’s Happening in Afghanistan?”. August 24, 2021
  4. CNBC. “House Democrats clear path toward passing $3.5 trillion budget bill and infrastructure plan after breaking stalemate”. August 24, 2021